Analysis of the Effect of Land-Use Change on Flood Discharge in the Dendeng Watershed, Kupang City
Keywords:
Dendeng Watershed, Flood discharge, Land-use change, Nakayasu SUH, Runoff coefficientAbstract
Land-use change in urban areas can alter infiltration capacity and increase surface runoff. This study aims to identify land-use changes in the Dendeng Watershed (DAS) of Kupang City in 2014 and 2024 and to analyze their effects on flood discharge. The analysis employed maximum daily rainfall data from El Tari Meteorological Station and Kupang Class II Climatological Station, Landsat 8 imagery for land-use interpretation, QGIS for spatial analysis, the Mononobe method for rainfall intensity, and the Nakayasu Synthetic Unit Hydrograph (SUH) for flood discharge estimation. The results show that vegetation coverage decreased from 12.67 km² to 8.02 km², built-up areas increased from 20.46 km² to 21.00 km², and open land increased from 12.35 km² to 16.71 km². The composite runoff coefficient increased from 0.357 to 0.377, while peak hydrograph discharge increased from 1.452 m³/s to 1.531 m³/s. Design flood discharge also increased; for the 25-year return period, it increased from 41.007 m³/s to 60.416 m³/s, while for the 100-year return period, it increased from 52.791 m³/s to 83.438 m³/s. These findings indicate that declining vegetation cover and increasing built-up and open areas intensify the runoff response of the Dendeng Watershed. Spatial planning control, protection of recharge areas, and vegetation rehabilitation are therefore required to reduce the increasing flood risk in Kupang City.
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